HON. SHERWOOD L. BOEHLERT, New York, Chairman
LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas RALPH M. HALL, Texas
CURT WELDON, Pennsylvania BART GORDON, Tennessee
DANA ROHRABACHER, California JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois
JOE BARTON, Texas EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas
KEN CALVERT, California LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California
NICK SMITH, Michigan NICK LAMPSON, Texas
ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland JOHN B. LARSON, Connecticut
VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan MARK UDALL, Colorado
GIL GUTKNECHT, Minnesota DAVID WU, Oregon
GEORGE R. NETHERCUTT, JR., MICHAEL M. HONDA, California
Washington CHRIS BELL, Texas
FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma BRAD MILLER, North Carolina
JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois LINCOLN DAVIS, Tennessee
WAYNE T. GILCHREST, Maryland SHEILA JACKSON LEE, Texas
W. TODD AKIN, Missouri ZOE LOFGREN, California
TIMOTHY V. JOHNSON, Illinois BRAD SHERMAN, California
MELISSA A. HART, Pennsylvania BRIAN BAIRD, Washington
JOHN SULLIVAN, Oklahoma DENNIS MOORE, Kansas
J. RANDY FORBES, Virginia ANTHONY D. WEINER, New York
PHIL GINGREY, Georgia JIM MATHESON, Utah
ROB BISHOP, Utah DENNIS A. CARDOZA, California
MICHAEL C. BURGESS, Texas VACANCY
JO BONNER, Alabama
TOM FEENEY, Florida
RANDY NEUGEBAUER, Texas
------
Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards
VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan, Chairman
NICK SMITH, Michigan MARK UDALL, Colorado
GIL GUTKNECHT, Minnesota BRAD MILLER, North Carolina
JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois LINCOLN DAVIS, Tennessee
WAYNE T. GILCHREST, Maryland BRIAN BAIRD, Washington
TIMOTHY V. JOHNSON, Illinois JIM MATHESON, Utah
MICHAEL C. BURGESS, Texas ZOE LOFGREN, California
VACANCY RALPH M. HALL, Texas
SHERWOOD L. BOEHLERT, New York
ERIC WEBSTER Subcommittee Staff Director
MIKE QUEAR Democratic Professional Staff Member
JEAN FRUCI Democratic Professional Staff Member
OLWEN HUXLEY Professional Staff Member
MARTY SPITZER Professional Staff Member
SUSANNAH FOSTER Professional Staff Member
AMY CARROLL Professional Staff Member/Chairman's Designee
ADAM SHAMPAINE Majority Staff Assistant
MARTY RALSTON Democratic Staff Assistant
C O N T E N T S
October 30, 2003
Page
Witness List..................................................... 2
Hearing Charter.................................................. 3
Opening Statements
Statement by Representative Vernon J. Ehlers, Chairman,
Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards,
Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives............ 8
Written Statement............................................ 9
Statement by Representative Mark Udall, Minority Ranking Member,
Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards,
Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives............ 10
Written Statement............................................ 11
Statement by Representative Gil Gutknecht, Member, Subcommittee
on Environment, Technology, and Standards, Committee on
Science, U.S. House of Representatives......................... 12
Panel:
Dr. Ernest Hildner, Director, Space Environment Center, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Oral Statement............................................... 13
Written Statement............................................ 15
Colonel Charles L. Benson, Jr., Commander, Air Force Weather
Agency
Oral Statement............................................... 24
Written Statement............................................ 26
Dr. John M. Grunsfeld, Chief Scientist, National Aeronautics and
Space Administration
Oral Statement............................................... 28
Written Statement............................................ 30
Mr. John G. Kappenman, Manager, Applied Power Systems, Metatech
Corporation
Oral Statement............................................... 32
Written Statement............................................ 34
Captain Henry P. (Hank) Krakowski, Vice President of Corporate
Safety, Quality Assurance, and Security, United Airlines
Oral Statement............................................... 50
Written Statement............................................ 53
Dr. Robert A. Hedinger, Executive Vice President, Loral Skynet,
Loral Space and Communications Ltd.
Oral Statement............................................... 55
Written Statement............................................ 57
Discussion
Space Environment Center (SEC) Funding......................... 71
The Appropriate Organization for Forecasting Space Weather..... 71
SEC Budget Compared to Other Federally Funded Programs......... 73
Private Sector Interaction With the SEC........................ 74
SEC Improvements Within the Current Budget..................... 75
Sensors Aboard the Aging Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
Spacecraft................................................... 76
Vulnerability to Industry From Space Weather Events............ 77
Vulnerability to Federal Agencies From Space Weather Events.... 78
Relationship With the International Community.................. 79
The Vital Role and Responsibilities of the SEC................. 79
Appendix 1: Biographies, Financial Disclosures, and Answers to Post-
Hearing Questions
Dr. Ernest Hildner, Director, Space Environment Center, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Biography.................................................... 82
Response to Post-Hearing Questions........................... 83
Colonel Charles L. Benson, Jr., Commander, Air Force Weather
Agency
Biography.................................................... 84
Response to Post-Hearing Questions........................... 86
Dr. John M. Grunsfeld, Chief Scientist, National Aeronautics and
Space Administration
Biography.................................................... 87
Response to Post-Hearing Questions........................... 89
Mr. John G. Kappenman, Manager, Applied Power Systems, Metatech
Corporation
Biography.................................................... 91
Financial Disclosure......................................... 95
Captain Henry P. (Hank) Krakowski, Vice President of Corporate
Safety, Quality Assurance, and Security, United Airlines
Biography.................................................... 96
Financial Disclosure......................................... 97
Dr. Robert A. Hedinger, Executive Vice President, Loral Skynet,
Loral Space and Communications Ltd.
Biography.................................................... 98
Financial Disclosure......................................... 99
Appendix 2: Additional Material for the Record
Article for the Record Submitted by Mr. Ehlers, ``Two Geomagnetic
Storms Hitting the Planet,'' The Washington Post, October 25,
2003........................................................... 102
Article for the Record Submitted by Mr. Ehlers, ``Cloud of Solar
Gas Strikes Our Planet,'' The Washington Post, October 25, 2003 104
Submitted Testimony of U.S. Commercial Satellite Imaging Industry 106
Submitted Testimony of the American Meteorological Society....... 107
Submitted Testimony of the Satellite Industry Associations....... 109
Submitted Testimony of Lockheed Martin........................... 111
Submitted Testimony of SES Americom.............................. 114
Submitted Testimony of Space Environment Technologies............ 116
Submitted Testimony of the Electric Power Research Institute..... 118
Submitted Testimony of the National Center for Atmospheric
Research....................................................... 121
Submitted Testimony of the Metatech Corporation.................. 125
Submitted Testimony of the University of Michigan, College of
Engineering.................................................... 127
Submitted Testimony of the Aerospace Industries Association...... 128
Submitted Testimony of Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp........ 132
Submitted Testimony of Tom Anderson, Colleyville, TX............. 135
Submitted Testimony of Daniel N. Baker, Director, Laboratory for
Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder. 136
Submitted Testimony of Murray Dryer, Space Physics Consultant,
Greenwood Village, CO.......................................... 137
Submitted Testimony of Dr. Craig D. ``Ghee'' Fry, Vice President,
Exploration Physics International, Inc. (EXPI)................. 139
Submitted Testimony of Captain Bryn Jones, A340 Captain and
Cosmic Radiation Program Manager, Virgin Atlantic Airways
Limited........................................................ 141
Submitted Testimony of J. Michael Thurman, Lamar, AR............. 142
Submitted Testimony of Ramon E. Lopez, C. Sharp Cook
Distinguished Professor, Department of Physics, University of
Texas, El Paso................................................. 144
Submitted Testimony of Robert Sobkoviak, Plainfield, IL.......... 146
Submitted Testimony of David F. Webb, ISR; Boston College........ 147
WHAT IS SPACE WEATHER AND
WHO SHOULD FORECAST IT?
----------
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2003
House of Representatives,
Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and
Standards,
Committee on Science,
Washington, DC.
The Subcommittee met, pursuant to call, at 10 a.m., in Room
2318 of the Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Vernon J.
Ehlers [Chairman of the Subcommittee] presiding.
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hearing charter
SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT, TECHNOLOGY, AND STANDARDS
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
What Is Space Weather and
Who Should Forecast It?
thursday, october 30, 2003
10:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m.
2318 rayburn house office building
Purpose
On October 30, 2003 at 10:00 a.m., the House Science Committee's
Subcommittee on Environment, Technology and Standards will hold a
hearing to examine the space weather activities at the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Environment Center. The
Space Environment Center (SEC) provides real-time monitoring and
forecasting of solar and geophysical events. These events can: cause
damage to communication satellites, electric transmission lines and
electric transformers; interfere in ground-based communications with
airline pilots; be fatal to astronauts on space flights and in the
International Space Station; and potentially harm airplane passengers
flying polar routes. SEC forecasts are used by the U.S. military, the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), NOAA itself, and
by the industries mentioned above. For example, just last Wednesday
(October 22), the SEC released two-day advanced warnings about an
unusually large solar storm, which allowed electrical utilities,
airlines, and spacecraft managers to take preventive action to minimize
disruption of service due to the storm. (See attachment.)
The Air Force Weather Agency works closely with NOAA's SEC on the
collection of space weather data through satellite and ground-based
sensors and provides warnings tailored for specific military needs. The
Air Force relies on the SEC for data analysis and overall forecasting.
The Air Force and NOAA each contribute to the cost of sensors to
monitor space weather, and NASA provides many of the satellites on
which the sensors are carried.
In the House Fiscal Year (FY) 2004 Commerce, Justice and State
(CJS) appropriations bill, SEC funding levels are below the
Administration's request. The Senate CJS Appropriations Committee
report includes the suggestion that the Air Force or NASA should take
on the duties of predicting space weather and contains no funding for
SEC. Thus, budget constraints could force the closure or reduction of
these vital and unique services provided by NOAA's SEC. The
Subcommittee wants to better understand the potential impact of the
loss of SEC services.
The Subcommittee plans to explore several overarching questions,
including:
1. LWhy do we need to understand and forecast space weather
events?
2. LWhat unique capabilities and expertise does NOAA's SEC
provide? To what extent could the Air Force or NASA perform
these duties?
3. LWhat are the implications of closure or reduced activities
of NOAA's SEC to the government and private sector?
Witnesses:
Dr. Ernest Hildner, Director, Space Environment Center, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, Colorado. Dr.
Hildner will provide an overview of the SEC, the services it provides
and its collaborations with other federal agencies.
Col. Charles L. Benson, Jr., Commander, Air Force Weather Agency,
Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska. Colonel Benson will explain the
mission of Air Force Space Weather Operations Center and the way the
Air Force and NOAA work together on space weather prediction.
Dr. John M. Grunsfeld, Chief Scientist, National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA). Dr. Grunsfeld will discuss the effects of space
weather on NASA operations.
Mr. John Kappenman, Manager, Applied Power Systems, Metatech
Corporation, Duluth, Minnesota. Mr. Kappenman will discuss the effects
of space weather events on electric power grid systems and how the loss
of NOAA's SEC would affect this industry. Mr. Kappenman was formerly
with Minnesota Power.
Captain Hank Krakowski, Vice President of Corporate Safety, Quality
Assurance, and Security, United Airlines, Chicago, Illinois. Captain
Krakowski will discuss how space weather events affect the airline
industry, including air traffic control communications and human health
concerns. He also will discuss how the loss of NOAA's SEC would affect
United Airlines operations.
Dr. Robert Hedinger, Executive Vice President, Loral Skynet,
Bedminster, New Jersey. Dr. Hedinger will explain the implications of
space weather events for communications satellites and how the loss of
NOAA's SEC would affect the commercial satellite sector.
Background
What Is Space Weather?
Space weather refers to conditions on the sun and in the solar
wind, which can cause disturbances in the outer layers of the Earth's
atmosphere. Highly energized particles from the sun disrupt the upper
layers of the Earth's atmosphere, causing geomagnetic storms that
result in increased radiation and rapid changes in the direction and
intensity of the Earth's magnetic field. These conditions can influence
the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based
technological systems and can endanger human life or health. Government
and private sector organizations concerned with communications,
satellite operations, electric power grids, human space flight, and
navigation use space weather information.
History of NOAA's Space Environment Center
NOAA's Space Environment Center (SEC), located in Boulder,
Colorado, began in the 1940's as a program to study short-wave radio
propagation at the National Bureau of Standards (now known as the
National Institute of Standards and Technology, or NIST). As the SEC
expanded its scope to study the effects of solar weather on the Earth's
atmosphere, the center moved into the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric
Research in NOAA, where it is currently located. The SEC consists of
three divisions: research and development, space weather operations,
and systems. The SEC has 54 NOAA staff and two Air Force liaisons in
its Boulder office. In a 2002 report, the National Academy Sciences,
called the work of the SEC ``crucial.''
NOAA's SEC collects, provides, and archives space environment data
from its polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites, from other
federal agencies, and through international data exchange. Forecasters
at SEC provide space weather forecasts and warnings to users in
government and industry and to the general public, while the Air Force
and private sector users take these forecasts and tailor them for their
organizations' specific needs. SEC's space weather operations division
is the national and international warning center for disturbances in
the space environment that can affect people and equipment. The effects
of these disturbances are described in more detail below. The research
and development division is home to the leading experts in space
weather. They conduct research in solar-terrestrial physics, develop
techniques for forecasting solar and geophysical disturbances, provide
real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar and geophysical events,
and prepare data to be archived by NOAA's National Geophysical Data
Center.
Air Force Space Forecast Center
NOAA's SEC works closely with the U.S. Air Force's Space Forecast
Center at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska, which provides space
weather forecast services to U.S. military customers. The total budget
for Air Force space weather efforts was $15.3 million in FY 2003. The
Air Force provides two personnel who work at the SEC to ensure that
this vital space weather information is fed smoothly to the Air Force,
which then tailors it for military purposes. For example, NOAA's SEC
may issue a warning that a geomagnetic storm will occur in the Earth's
atmosphere at a certain time. The Air Force will use this information
to make recommendations about military satellites that should be turned
or powered down, or military operations that should be suspended until
the storm passes.
NASA Operations
NASA requires information about space weather to make decisions
regarding the space shuttle and International Space Station (ISS)
operations. For example, astronauts conducting space walks could be
killed if they were exposed to high levels of radiation. Additionally,
astronauts inside the ISS may have to take special precautions during a
solar storm. In fulfilling its research mission, NASA flies many of the
sensors used to collect space weather data on its research satellites.
National Space Weather Program (NSWP)
Previous reviews of the space weather program have concluded that
NOAA should continue to run the civilian space weather forecasting
operation.
For example, in 1997, an interagency working group developed ``The
National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan,'' under which NOAA
was to continue to run civilian space weather programs and the Air
Force was to continue to run such programs for the military. The
interagency group included NOAA, the National Science Foundation, the
Department of Defense, NASA, the Department of Energy, the Department
of the Interior, and the Department of Transportation.
Similarly, in its 2002 report, ``The Sun to the Earth--and Beyond:
A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics,'' the National
Academy of Sciences recommended that NOAA not only continue to forecast
space weather but that NOAA should do more to coordinate the
development of the sensors that are used to make its forecasts.
Specifically, the Academy recommended that NOAA and NASA initiate a
plan to transition solar monitoring sensors from their current location
primarily on research satellites to operational satellite programs.
The SEC Budget Situation
The Space Environment Center is funded through NOAA's Office of
Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). In FY 2003, the SEC received
$5.2 million (a reduction of $2 million below FY 2002 levels). For FY
2004, the Administration requested $8 million for NOAA's SEC. At this
time, the FY 2004 appropriations process is ongoing in Congress. The
House Commerce, Justice, State (CJS) bill, passed in July, provides
$5.2 million for the SEC (same level as FY 2003). The Senate CJS bill,
reported out by the full committee, recommends no funding for SEC and
suggests that the Air Force or NASA should assume the responsibility of
forecasting space weather. Funding for some of the sensors and
satellites that provide data to the SEC is already provided by other
agencies, such as NASA and the Air Force, but NOAA's SEC is the
national center for data collection and forecasting of space weather
events.
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Why Do We Need Space Weather Forecasts From NOAA's SEC?
Electric Power Grids
The first recorded evidence of space weather effects on technology
was in 1859, when a major failure of telegraph systems in New England
and Europe coincided with a large solar flare. More recently, on March
13, 1989, geomagnetically induced currents in Canadian transmission
lines set off a cascade of broken circuits, causing loss of power for
the entire Hydro-Quebec power grid. The blackout affected six million
customers and cost Hydro-Quebec more than $10 million.
In 1998, a similar geomagnetic storm was headed for Earth. This
time, thanks to data from new sensors and improved forecast models,
NOAA's SEC forecasters were able to alert electric power customers 40
minutes before the storm hit the Earth. In response, electric power
utilities diverted power and increased safety margins on certain parts
of the grid to avoid stress on the power system.
Satellite Operations
In addition to electric power grid operations, human activities
dependent on satellites are affected by space weather. This includes
everything from communications to satellite-television. Research done
at NOAA's SEC has helped provide the government and other satellite
operators with data on storms to help understand whether a failed
satellite was due to mechanical problems or space weather.
Additionally, the satellite industry uses space weather forecasts to
determine the timing of rocket launches to avoid sending a multi-
million dollar satellite into orbit at the peak of a solar storm.
Communications Satellites
Solar storms cause disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere that can
affect the orbital path of low-orbit spacecraft, creating operational
and tracking problems and sometimes shortening the useful life of a
satellite. For example, in May 1998 loss of telephone pager service to
45 million customers was caused by a solar storm. During the Gulf War
in 1991 military forces reported high frequency radio communications
interruptions due to ionization storms, and in January 1994 an extended
period of high electron levels caused failure of two Canadian
communications satellites, which interrupted telephone, television, and
radio service for several hours.
Airline Industry
Airlines are concerned about space weather because it can disrupt
satellite and ground-based communication systems, which allow air
traffic controllers to talk directly to pilots. Federal regulations
require airlines to maintain communication capability with their
aircraft at all times. Additionally, navigation systems can be affected
by space weather events. Finally, because of the curvature of the
Earth, planes flying from North America to Asia generally make flights
over the North Pole, where passengers can be susceptible to higher
doses of solar radiation than traditional non-polar flights. United
Airlines reports that for the 21-month period from January 2002 through
September 2003 there were approximately 140 flights that were or could
have been affected by space weather events.
Questions for Witnesses
Dr. Ernest Hildner, Director, Space Environment Center, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
1. Please provide an overview of NOAA's Space Environment
Center (SEC). What research programs are performed at the
center? What operational services are provided by the center?
2. Please describe the different types of solar weather events
and specifically explain the time it takes for them to travel
to the Earth. What is the lead-time we currently have for
reacting to or mitigating the effects of solar weather? Please
provide historical examples of when space weather events have
affected human activities.
3. Who are the users of SEC products and information?
4. Please describe the relationship between the SEC, NASA, and
the Air Force Weather Agency, including a specific explanation
of the role of each agency in understanding and predicting
space weather.
5. If the FY04 final appropriation for the SEC was the $5.2
million recommended in the House bill, what would be the impact
on SEC services?
Col. Charles L. Benson, Jr., Commander, Air Force Weather Agency
1. Please provide an overview of the Air Force Space Weather
Services provided through the Air Force Weather Agency.
2. Please describe the relationship between NOAA's Space
Environment Center (SEC), NASA, and the Air Force Weather
Agency, including a specific explanation of the role of each
agency in understanding and predicting space weather.
3. Who are the users of Air Force space weather products and
information?
4. Are there any technical barriers to the Air Force Weather
Agency taking on the duties of the SEC if it were no longer
funded through NOAA? Given that the Air Force's capabilities
are designed for military purposes, how would you have to adapt
your practices to provide SEC-like services to the civilian
sector?
5. What would be the impacts on the Air Force and overall
military operations if SEC no longer existed? Please provide
specific examples when possible.
Dr. John M. Grunsfeld, Chief Scientist, National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA)
1. Please provide an overview of how space weather can affect
NASA operations, including examples of historical events that
have caused problems.
2. How does NASA use data and products from NOAA's Space
Environment Center (SEC)? In general, how much lead time do you
need to make decisions for mitigating the effects of space
weather?
3. How would you compare our knowledge today of the impacts of
space weather on NASA operations to what we knew five years
ago, and to what we expect to know five years from now?
4. What would be the impact to NASA if SEC were no longer able
to provide its space weather forecasts to you? Please provide
specific examples when possible.
5. Are there any technical barriers to NASA taking on the
duties of the SEC if it were no longer funded through NOAA?
Given that NASA's mission is research oriented, how would you
have to adapt your practices to provide SEC operational
services?
Mr. John Kappenman, Manager, Applied Power Systems, Metatech
Corporation
1. Please provide an overview of how space weather can affect
electric power grid systems, including examples of historical
events that have caused problems.
2. How does your organization use data and products from
NOAA's Space Environment Center (SEC)? In general, how much
lead time do you need to make decisions for mitigating the
effects of space weather?
3. How would you compare our knowledge today of the impacts of
space weather on electric power grid systems to what we knew
five years ago, and to what we expect to know five years from
now?
4. What would be the impact to your organization and the
electric power grid industry if SEC were no longer able to
provide its space weather forecasts to you? Please provide
specific examples when possible.
Captain Hank Krakowski, Vice President of Corporate Safety, Quality
Assurance and Security, United Airlines
1. Please provide an overview of how space weather can affect
airline operations, including examples of historical events
that have caused problems.
2. How does your organization use data and products from
NOAA's Space Environment Center (SEC)? In general, how much
lead time do you need to make decisions for mitigating the
effects of space weather?
3. How would you compare our knowledge today of the impacts of
space weather on airline operations to what we knew five years
ago, and to what we expect to know five years from now?
4. What would be the impact to your organization if SEC were
no longer able to provide its space weather forecasts? Please
provide specific examples when possible.
Dr. Robert Hedinger, Executive Vice President, Loral Skynet
1. Please provide an overview of how space weather can affect
satellite operations, including examples of historical events
that have caused problems.
2. How does your organization use data and products from
NOAA's Space Environment Center (SEC)? In general, how much
lead time do you need to make decisions for mitigating the
effects of space weather?
3. How would you compare our knowledge today of the impacts of
space weather on satellite operations to what we knew five
years ago, and to what we expect to know five years from now?
4. What would be the impact to your organization if SEC were
no longer able to provide its space weather forecasts? Please
provide specific examples when possible.
Chairman Ehlers. This hearing will come to order. Good
morning. Welcome to the oversight hearing entitled: ``What Is
Space Weather and Who Should Forecast It?'' And if you don't
know what it is, you can go out and look outside and you will
get some idea of what space weather is. Well, I wanted to make
it clear, since I have been asked this, that the solar storm
that is currently underway did not start the fires in
California.
As a physicist, I must admit that when we began to plan for
this hearing last month, I did not think it would conjure much
attention outside of the scientific community. However, thanks
to Divine Intervention, we now have major solar storm activity
to coincide with the hearing. We certainly hope that the lights
will stay on and our webcast capabilities will not be
diminished during the course of this hearing.
The purpose of the hearing is to examine the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's, better known as NOAA,
Space Environment Center. This center, abbreviated SEC, but not
to be confused with buying and selling stocks, provides real-
time monitoring and forecasting of solar storms. The SEC is
located with other NOAA labs in Boulder, Colorado in the
District of Mr. Udall, the Subcommittee Ranking Member sitting
directly to my right.
Many of us may think of solar eruptions as a curiosity or
as the source of the beautiful Aurora Borealis often observed
by residents in the northern U.S. However, as highlighted by
recent media attention, these solar events can have serious
repercussions for Earth-based technological systems. They cause
geomagnetic storms in the Earth's atmosphere that can disrupt
communication systems, cause surges on electric power grids,
and be harmful to airline passengers and astronauts. NOAA's SEC
provides vital space weather forecasts for civilian industries
concerned with these effects. Additionally, SEC forecasts are
used by the Air Force to provide tailored recommendations for
military users concerned with space weather. For example, I
believe the current space storm was predicted a good two days
before it began.
Despite its important role in protecting the Nation's
technological systems from geomagnetic storms, some here in
Congress have proposed to reduce or eliminate funding for
NOAA's SEC. In the House fiscal year 2004 appropriations bill
for NOAA, SEC funding levels are 35 percent below the
Administration's request of $8 million. Of even greater
concern, the Senate Appropriations Committee bill contains no
funding for SEC and includes the suggestion, without any
justification, that the Air Force or the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration, better known as NASA, should take on
the duties of predicting space weather.
Today, we will hear from representatives of NOAA, the Air
Force, and NASA about the roles of each agency in monitoring
and forecasting space weather. Then we will hear from
representatives of three industries that rely on SEC forecasts:
the electric power grid industry, the airline industry, and the
communications satellite industry. These experts will help us
to better understand the impact of space weather on the Earth
and its surroundings and to examine the question of who should
be responsible for forecasting it.
Before we hear from our Ranking Member and our witnesses, I
wanted to show a short movie clip of the most recent solar
flare to set the mood for today's hearing. So we will now show
that. I am not quite sure how that is going to show up in the
transcript of the hearing, but we will take a quick look.
[Video]
Chairman Ehlers. Thank you very much. If I might mention
yesterday, just out of curiosity, I went to the site, the solar
site, and looked at one of the images. I took my little ruler
and measured the diameter of the sun and the size of the flare
compared to the sun. Then did a quick mental calculation. I
can't guarantee this is accurate, and I probably shouldn't even
say it, but my quick mental calculation indicated that the size
of the flare, as apparent from that particular picture, was
approximately 60 Earth diameters. That gives some startling
idea of the scale of this. If the Earth had been there, it
would have been an insignificant dot compared to the size of
the flare. And that indicates the strength of the storms that
we deal with.
Before I will recognize my Ranking Member, I also want to
mention that we are going to have problems with the House
schedule today. I understand that we are likely to have a vote
in approximately 20 minutes, and unfortunately, we are very
Pavlovian here; when the bells ring, we go vote. We will simply
have to suspend the hearing while we go vote. We may well be
interrupted by other votes later, but we will try to proceed as
expeditiously as we can.
The Chair now recognizes Mark Udall, the Ranking Minority
Member on the Environment, Technology, and Standards
Subcommittee for his opening statement.
[The prepared statement of Chairman Ehlers follows:]
Prepared Statement of Chairman Vernon J. Ehlers
Good morning! Welcome to this oversight hearing entitled, ``What Is
Space Weather and Who Should Forecast It?'' As a physicist, I must
admit that, when we began to plan for this hearing last month, I did
not think it would garner much attention outside the scientific
community. However, thanks to divine intervention, we now have major
solar storm activity to coincide with the hearing. We hope the lights
will stay on, and our webcast capabilities will not be impacted.
The purpose of the hearing is to examine the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration's (better known as NOAA) Space Environment
Center. This center, abbreviated SEC, provides real-time monitoring and
forecasting of solar storms. The SEC is located with other NOAA labs in
Boulder, Colorado, in the district of Mr. Udall, the Subcommittee
Ranking Member.
Many of us may think of solar eruptions as a curiosity, or as the
source of the beautiful Aurora Borealis often observed by residents in
the northern U.S. However, as highlighted by recent media attention,
these solar events can have serious repercussions for Earth-based
technological systems. They cause geomagnetic storms in the Earth's
atmosphere that can disrupt communication systems, cause surges on
electric power grids, and be harmful to airline passengers and
astronauts. NOAA's SEC provides vital space weather forecasts for
civilian industries concerned with these effects. Additionally, SEC
forecasts are used by the Air Force to provide tailored recommendations
for military users concerned with space weather.
Despite its important role in protecting the Nation's technological
systems from geomagnetic storms, some here in Congress have proposed to
reduce or eliminate funding for NOAA's SEC. In the House Fiscal Year
2004 appropriations bill for NOAA, SEC funding levels are 35 percent
below the Administration's request of eight million dollars. Of even
greater concern, the Senate Appropriations Committee bill contains no
funding for SEC and includes the suggestion, without any justification,
that the Air Force or NASA should take on the duties of predicting
space weather.
Today we will hear from representatives of NOAA, the Air Force and
NASA about the roles of each agency in monitoring and forecasting space
weather. Then we will hear from representatives of three industries
that rely on SEC forecasts--the electric power grid industry, the
airline industry, and the communications satellite industry. These
experts will help us to better understand the impact of space weather
on the Earth and to examine the question of who should be responsible
for forecasting it.
Mr. Udall. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Good morning to the
panel and all of you who have assembled here to attend this
important hearing. I want to begin by thanking the Chairman for
holding this hearing. And of course, I have to thank him, also,
for his impeccable timing. He managed to arrange for the sun
spot activity last week to occur and then the solar flare this
week has really given us a firsthand understanding of the
importance of space weather and the need for the space weather
forecasting services provided by NOAA's Space Environment
Center, the SEC. And I would think, Mr. Chairman, this SEC is
at least as important as the other SEC, particularly over the
long-term as we have learned more about space weather.
Sunspots, geomagnetic storms, and solar flares, the
phenomena of space weather, used to be a topic solely in the
province of space scientists. While we have experienced the
effects of these phenomena in the past, we had no ability to
monitor or forecast these storms or to anticipate their likely
effects. Some of you here know about the large solar flare that
was generated in 1859, September of 1859, which shorted out
telegraph wires in the U.S. and in Europe. And caused numerous
fires.
Today, because of the importance of communications,
electricity, and transportation to our daily lives, a similar
storm would have devastating impacts in the absence of space
weather forecasting. Satellites, transformers and transmission
lines, and the billion dollar infrastructure that supports
these essential services, are all vulnerable to space weather
events. The SEC's forecasts enable government and private
sector operators to take actions to minimize disruptions in
service and damage to critical infrastructure.
The SEC's annual budget, really of a mere $8 million, seems
modest when we evaluate it in the context of the Nation's
investment in space weather monitoring and research and in
comparison to the billions of dollars of infrastructure and
services that are vulnerable to space weather events.
After investing millions of dollars and many years of
research on space weather, we are now able to monitor solar
storms and forecast their nature and intensity. Eliminating the
SEC or drastically cutting its budget does not save money; it
actually wastes taxpayer investments in research by cutting off
the service that is currently delivering real benefits. Cutting
the SEC's budget reverses, in my opinion, and I believe the
opinion of many people here and people around the country, our
progress in space weather forecasting, putting billions of
dollars of infrastructure and services at risk.
This committee, in my opinion, should endorse the
Administration's fiscal year 2004 budget request
enthusiastically for those reasons. We should also continue to
support research to improve space weather forecasting and to
expand our knowledge of space weather and its potential
impacts.
While the space weather forecasting discipline is still in
its infancy, we still--it is no less essential than terrestrial
weather forecasting. If we do not continue to invest in space
weather forecasting, we will not only enjoy gazing at the
Northern Lights, but we will risk experiencing widespread
blackouts. Let us keep the lights on, the planes flying, and
the communications flowing by fully investing in the Space
Environment Center and its vital research and forecasting
activities.
Mr. Chairman, I am also aware of a number of people with
interests in space weather who wish to contribute to the record
for this hearing. Therefore, I would ask unanimous consent that
the record for this hearing be open--held open for 10 days to
enable trade groups, private citizens, academics, and industry
representatives to submit material to the record.
Chairman Ehlers. So ordered.
Mr. Udall. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
In conclusion, the witnesses we have here today will help
us to better understand the phenomena and potential impacts of
space weather events on our government activities and on our
economy. We have an excellent panel of witnesses for our
hearing today. I want to thank you all for taking your time to
appear before the Subcommittee this morning, and I do look
forward to your testimony.
With that, Mr. Chairman, I would yield back any time I have
remaining.
[The prepared statement of Mr. Udall follows:]
Prepared Statement of Representative Mark Udall
Good morning.
First, I would like to express my thanks to the Chairman for
holding this hearing and to congratulate him on his timing. I don't
know how you managed to arrange for the sun spot activity last week,
Mr. Chairman, but the solar flare that reached Earth this past week
illustrates the importance of space weather and the need for the space
weather forecasting services provided by NOAA's Space Environment
Center (SEC).
Sun spots, geomagnetic storms, and solar flares--the phenomena of
space weather--used to be a topic solely in the province of space
scientists. While we have experienced the effects of these phenomena in
the past, we had no ability to monitor or forecast these storms or to
anticipate their likely effects. For example, a large solar flare
generated in September of 1859 shorted out telegraph wires in the U.S.
and in Europe causing numerous fires.
Today, because of the importance of communications, electricity,
and transportation to our daily lives, a similar storm would have
devastating impacts in the absence of space weather forecasting.
Satellites, transformers, and transmission lines--and the billion
dollar infrastructure that supports these essential services are all
vulnerable to space weather events. The SEC's forecasts enable
government and private sector operators to take actions to minimize
disruptions in service and damage to critical infrastructure.
The SEC's annual budget of $8 million seems modest when we evaluate
it in the context of the Nation's investment in space weather
monitoring and research and in comparison to the billions of dollars of
infrastructure and services that are vulnerable to space weather
events.
After investing millions of dollars and many years of research on
space weather, we are now able to monitor solar storms and forecast
their nature and intensity. Eliminating the SEC or drastically cutting
its budget does not save money. It wastes taxpayer investments in
research by cutting off the service that is currently delivering real
benefits. Cutting the SEC's budget reverses our progress in space
weather forecasting, putting billions of dollars of infrastructure and
services at risk.
This Committee should endorse the Administration's FY04 budget
request, enthusiastically. We should continue to support research to
improve space weather forecasting and to expand our knowledge of space
weather and its potential impacts.
While space weather forecasting is still in its infancy, it is no
less essential than terrestrial weather forecasting. If we do not
continue to invest in space weather forecasting, we will not only enjoy
gazing at the Northern lights, but we will also risk experiencing
widespread blackouts. Let's keep the lights on, the planes flying and
communications flowing by fully funding the Space Environment Center
and its vital research and forecasting activities.
Mr. Chairman, I am also aware of a number of people with interests
in space weather who wish to contribute to the record for this hearing.
Therefore, I ask unanimous consent that the record for this hearing be
held open for ten days to enable trade groups, private citizens,
academics and industry representatives to submit material to the
record.
The witnesses we have here today will help us to better understand
the phenomena and potential impacts of space weather events on our
governmental activities and on our economy. We have an excellent panel
of witnesses for our hearing today. I thank you all for appearing
before the Subcommittee this morning and I look forward to your
testimony.
Chairman Ehlers. All right. If there is no objection, all
additional opening statements submitted by the Subcommittee
Members will be added to the record. Without objection, so
ordered.
At this time, I would like to introduce our witnesses. We
will begin with a special introduction by our Ranking Member,
Mr. Udall.
Mr. Udall. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
I want to take this time to acknowledge Dr. Hildner, who is
here from my hometown of Boulder. Dr. Hildner is the Director
of NOAA's Space Environment Center, the SEC, we have been
mentioning. It is located in Boulder, as I mentioned. Dr.
Hildner is a solar physicist who has worked for the High
Altitude Observatory at NCAR, which is also based in Colorado,
and at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Alabama where he
was the head of its Solar Physics Branch. He was an
experimental scientist for Skylab and the Solar Maximum Mission
during the 1970's. Dr. Hildner's scientific specialty is
coronal and interplanetary physics about which he has published
dozens of papers. Last year, the National Academy of Sciences
called the work of the SEC ``crucial.'' Under Dr. Hildner's
steady watch, the Center continues to do its crucial work very
well, though recent budget cuts have made his job, and the jobs
of NOAA's SEC staff more difficult.
I look forward to hearing from Dr. Hildner today as he
helps us understand the importance of the Space Environment
Center.
Welcome, Dr. Hildner.
Chairman Ehlers. And with that background, he can tell me
later whether my mental calculation was correct.
Next, it is my pleasure to introduce Colonel Charles L.
Benson, Junior. He is the Commander of the Air Force Weather
Agency at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska. Following him is
Dr. John M. Grunsfeld, Chief Scientist of the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration, better known, of course,
by its acronym, NASA. The next witness to be introduced by the
honorable gentleman from Minnesota, Mr. Gutknecht.
Mr. Gutknecht. Well, thank you, Chairman Ehlers.
And I just want to welcome the panel. And Chairman Ehlers
and I have had the opportunity to go out and visit the NOAA
center out in Boulder, and we were duly impressed with the work
that is done.
But it is my honor today to introduce John Kappenman from
Metatech Corporation in Duluth, Minnesota. For those of you who
have never had the chance to go to Duluth, Minnesota, it is one
of the most beautiful cities, not only in Minnesota, but, I
think, in the country. And if you don't get a chance to go to
Duluth and visit the city, or go fishing in the beautiful
waters of Lake Superior, at least you can go to my website and
you can see a very large lake trout, which I caught there about
two months ago. And I am very proud of that picture. And it is
on the front page of my website.
For the past 27 years, Mr. Kappenman has researched
electronic power system impacts caused by widespread
geomagnetic field disturbances due to space weather. Since
1997, he has been employed with Metatech Corporation where he
has advised folks worldwide on how to protect technology and
power grid systems.
We all look forward to your testimony, and we welcome you
here to Washington.
Chairman Ehlers. Thank you, Mr. Gutknecht.
I now understand the reason for the low lake levels in the
Great Lake system: you are taking all of the fish out of them.
Next, it is my pleasure to introduce Captain Hank
Krakowski. He is the Vice President of Corporate Safety,
Quality Assurance, and Security for United Airlines located in
Chicago, Illinois. And our final witness is Dr. Robert
Hedinger. He is the Executive Vice President of Loral Skynet
out of Bedminster, New Jersey.
As our witnesses should know, I presume you have been
briefed, testimony is limited to five minutes each,
particularly with a large panel like this, so we ask that you
honor that request. And the little device here will show green
for the first four minutes, yellow for the next minute, and
then it turns red and all sorts of bad things happen. So we
request that you try to keep it to five minutes each.
We will start with Dr. Hildner.
STATEMENT OF DR. ERNEST HILDNER, DIRECTOR, SPACE ENVIRONMENT
CENTER, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
Dr. Hildner. Good morning, Chairman Ehlers and Members of
the Subcommittee. And thank you, Mr. Udall, for your kind
introduction. As Director of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration Space Environment Center, I am
pleased to join these other witnesses and you today for the
hearing on SEC's role in providing operational space weather
information to the United States. We believe that NOAA is the
proper home for the Nation's space weather service.
The extensive media coverage of recent radiation and
geomagnetic storms clearly illustrates the Nation's need for
accurate, reliable, and timely space weather forecasting. The
effects of space weather, as you have already indicated, are
far ranging. We know that airlines, the International Space
Station, nuclear power plants, and at least one satellite were
affected by the recent solar and space weather events. NOAA's
SEC is the central focus of information for these kinds of
events.
[Slide]
The next figure shows that--sorry. I am in control here, I
think.
The next figure in the upper left shows the number of web
accesses to our site. And that spike, over the last several
days, reaches almost ten million hits on our website per day.
Even before the recent activity and the media attention,
customers hit our website over 500,000 times a day, and that is
that lower part on the left. This figure also shows several of
the NOAA products used by radio communicators, by airlines, by
satellite operators, and the various alerts and warning
products issued by SEC in the last week in the upper right.
That figure, which is too small to see, actually tells you how
many times we sent out alerts and warnings to our customers for
our various products.
The recent media coverage of effects show there is a direct
correlation between space weather and the U.S. economy. The
direct global economic impact of space weather has been
estimated very conservatively at $200 million per year. It is
clear that the adverse conditions in the space environment can
disrupt communications, navigation, air travel, national
electric power distribution grids, and satellite operations.
Improved space weather information will assure safety,
reliability, and national security, as my colleagues today will
discuss the benefits of space weather forecasting for their
work.
However, I would like to highlight some important points
about SEC, and one of those is the funding issue that has
already been eluded to. I would be remiss if I didn't ask for
your assistance. As you stated, the President's budget
recommends $8.3 million for SEC in fiscal year 2004. The House
Appropriations Committee has recommended $5.3 million, fully $3
million below the President's request, and the Senate
Appropriations Committee has zeroed out funding entirely.
If either level below the President's request is enacted,
there will be dramatic consequences for SEC and for the vital
services that it provides. In response to the necessary staff
reductions, NOAA will be faced with the choice of eliminating
SEC's research and development activities or its services. If
the R&D is cut, NOAA will not be able to improve products,
models, and data streams needed by our customers. On the other
hand, cutting services means that our customers will only
receive data: no value added forecasts, no warnings, no alerts.
Either choice means our effectiveness as a partner to other
government agencies, such as NASA and the Air Force, will drop.
I need to emphasize that zeroing out SEC's budget will
eliminate the one source of official U.S. space weather alerts,
warnings, and forecasts. Space weather is defined by the
National Space Weather Program as: ``Conditions on the sun and
in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere
that can influence the performance and reliability of space-
borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger
human life or health.''
SEC monitors, predicts, and forecasts conditions in the
space environment and provides critical data, space weather
data, to a variety of government and commercial customers. SEC
also conducts research into phenomena affecting the space
environment.
[Slide]
As the next figure indicates, space weather begins to--
space weather begins at the sun, and this animation shows the
brightening of the sun, if you can run the movie, please----
[Video]
At the time of a flare, the spray of swift energetic
particles and a cloud of solar atmosphere depart the sun. When
it arrives at Earth, it causes a geomagnetic storm, much as
what happened on Wednesday morning this week.
SEC provides services, conducts research and development,
and builds and maintains the computer systems, which support
the Center's work. SEC's efforts are focused on areas where
advanced applications can be brought to bear. We continually
monitor. We continually monitor Earth's space environment with
displays and software driven by the approximately 1,400 data
sets that we receive everyday. The forecasters synthesize
current data, climatological statistics, and relevant research
results to formulate our daily predictions of solar and
geophysical activity.
The future of SEC's vital role in conducting and
coordinating research in its applications was discussed, as
mentioned earlier, in a recent National Research Council
report, a Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics.
In this report, the NRC recommended that NOAA assume full
responsibility for space-based solar wind measurements and it
should expand its facilities for integrating data into space
weather models.
It looks like my time is up, so let me, in conclusion, say
that the Space Environment Center is the Nation's unique
civilian provider of critical, real-time information and
forecasts on space weather that affect the United States'
economic, national, and homeland security. We want to remain in
that role.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee,
for this opportunity to testify on this extremely important
matter to NOAA and the Nation. And I would be happy to answer
any questions.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Hildner follows:]
Prepared Statement of Ernest Hildner
Thank you, Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee, for the
opportunity to testify before you regarding the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) activities at the Space Environment
Center (SEC). I am Ernest Hildner, Director of the SEC and responsible
for day-to-day management and long-term planning of the Center. Space,
from the Sun to Earth's upper atmosphere, is a strategic and economic
frontier. This unique environment influences a multitude of human
activities, and its understanding presents numerous scientific
challenges. NOAA's SEC has a central role in conducting and
coordinating research to understand the space environment to improve
space weather services, and in providing critical operational space
weather services for NOAA and the Nation. SEC strives to understand and
predict the state of the space environment by accumulating data,
running models, applying forecaster insight, conducting applied
research, and utilizing research and data obtained externally to make
operational forecasts of the space environment. Today I will provide an
overview of space weather, of SEC and the services it provides, the
budgetary and science challenges facing SEC, how SEC collaborates with
other agencies, and the value of space weather forecasting and
research. I am pleased to have the chance to discuss these topics
today.
SPACE WEATHER
``Space weather'' refers to conditions on the sun and in the
solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that
can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne
and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human
life or health. Adverse conditions in the space environment can
cause disruption of satellite operations, communications,
navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a
variety of socio-economic losses. National Space Weather
Program Strategic Plan, FCM-P30-1995.
The Earth lies 150 million kilometers, or 93 million miles, from
the Sun, but it is immersed in the extended solar atmosphere. Our
magnetic field resists the continual outflow of ionized gas from the
Sun, protecting us here at the surface. However, the Earth and its
field represent an obstacle to the solar outflow. As a result, the
geomagnetic field is compressed on the sunward side of Earth and drawn
out away from the Sun to make a comet-shaped cavity. As shown in the
artist's sketch below, the size of the boundary between Earth's
dominion and the Sun's varies with the pressure exerted by the Sun's
outflow.
<GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT>
Space weather storms are spawned by a variety of changes in solar
outputs. First, the light from the Sun, at wavelengths both longer and
shorter than the visible, can brighten abruptly. This light travels to
Earth and affects the near-Earth environment just as we discern that a
solar event has occurred. The photons from a solar flare produce a
radio blackout, at some frequencies, by changing the character of the
dayside ionosphere and upsetting the delicate balance between the Sun's
otherwise nearly constant output and Earth's ability to receive and
ingest it.
Solar energetic particles comprise a second type of solar emission.
These particles, predominantly protons, the nuclei of hydrogen atoms,
are accelerated in coronal mass ejections and solar flares. They travel
from the Sun slower than the speed of light, arriving near Earth as
soon as tens of minutes after the solar eruption, the more energetic
particles usually arriving first. The transit from sun to Earth may be
slowed if the intervening magnetic fields do not provide easy Sun-to-
Earth connection; then the particles' arrival may be delayed many tens
of hours. A major rise in energetic particle flux is commonly referred
to as a radiation storm.
A third type of solar emission that has strong space weather
impacts is magnetized plasma. When the continually evolving solar
magnetic fields abruptly restructure themselves over a broad area, a
portion of the outer solar atmosphere, the corona, can be ejected
violently into space. These coronal mass ejections, clouds of ionized
gas (solar plasma) and their embedded magnetic fields, fly away from
the Sun at 400-1000 kilometers/second (1-2 million miles per hour). If
Earth happens to be in the way, when the cloud strikes Earth's magnetic
field 2 to 4 days later, then our geomagnetic field is compressed and
may be eroded, resulting in a geomagnetic storm.
The following diagram depicts the times scales associated with
these three types of space weather events.
<GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT>
The diagram illustrates the lead time between the occurrence of the
parent event at the Sun and the terrestrial response; as well as the
watches, warnings, and alerts issued by SEC. Thus, space weather has
several kinds of storms much as meteorological weather has storms as
different as tornadoes, blizzards, and hurricanes. A particular type of
space weather storm has significant impacts on particular technologies
so some customers are impacted by one type of space weather storm but
not by another.
For example, strong x-ray bursts have a serious impact on high
frequency (HF) communications on the dayside of Earth. ARINC, a
provider of air traffic communications capabilities to commercial
airline flights over the North Atlantic, ensures the safety of the
movements of airplanes in flight with communications to the cockpit.
They need to know when the HF communications are being affected due to
natural conditions (space weather) or due to some equipment failure,
and advise aircraft of appropriate frequencies to use. The United
States Coast Guard is alerted by SEC staff during these same types of
episodes as its LORAN navigation system will be unable to provide the
required accuracy to its users during solar flare events. LORAN is
intentionally made unavailable during these disturbed space weather
conditions.
During bursts of solar energetic particles, the second type of
space weather storm, the potential for biological damage due to
elevated solar radiation increases. The NASA Space Radiation Analysis
Group is responsible for assuring that humans in space not receive
anything beyond the lowest reasonable radiation dose. They will advise
the Flight Surgeon at NASA's Johnson Space Center to alter the activity
plan for the crew if those activities involve leaving the space craft
(for an extra-vehicular activity, or EVA), or suggest moving the crew
to the most highly protected area of the Space Shuttle or International
Space Station during the space weather radiation storm. NASA requires
forecasts and specifications of radiation that affects both humans and
equipment in space.
Another witness will discuss the effects of radiation storms and
communications degradation on the airline industry.
Satellites in orbit and during the launch are at risk from
radiation storms, and I am pleased to see that you have a witness to
discuss those effects of space weather as well.
The third type of space weather storm, caused by the interaction
between the onrushing magnetized plasma from the Sun and Earth's own
magnetic field, is particularly menacing. This geomagnetic storm can be
thought of as the space weather version of a strong hurricane, as it
has very widespread impacts across a large number of systems and users.
Somewhat like hurricane clouds are monitored from satellites, this
plasma cloud can be seen as it leaves the Sun and it is probed
internally as it is about to make ``Earthfall.''
When a coronal mass ejection occurs, forecasters at SEC analyze the
direction of the ejectum to determine whether it is Earth-bound and
estimate the kinetic energy associated with the event. As it takes a
few days for the cloud to reach Earth, there is time for users to take
preventive or mitigating action. One of today's witnesses will discuss
the effects of geomagnetic storms on the electric power grid.
SEC has been called upon to help investigate possible environmental
causes for disasters. The recently active Shuttle Columbia Accident
Investigation Board asked for testimony to rule out the possibility
that a radiation storm could have affected the Shuttle's computers
during reentry. More recently, there were inquiries whether the
electrical blackout of the Northeast on August 14, 2003, was caused by
a space weather geomagnetic storm. SEC saw no evidence that it was.
Ironically, however, as the grid was being brought back up to capacity,
on August 18 there was a strong geomagnetic storm that hampered the
ability of the operators to return to normalcy.
Another system impacted during geomagnetic storms is the Wide Area
Augmentation System (WAAS) of the Federal Aviation Administration,
designed for aircraft navigation en route. The WAAS technology relies
on the use of the Global Positioning System (GPS), and GPS accuracy is
adversely affected during geomagnetic storms. In the current solar
cycle, the space weather storm of July 14-15, 2000, was by many
measures the most serious. During this storm, the ``Test-bed'' WAAS was
unable to determine the position of a receiver on an airplane to the
accuracy required; as a result of the storm, slight changes were made
to the WAAS model based on data received during that solar activity.
The Space Weather Operations group at SEC issues alerts, warnings,
and watches of space weather storms, on a 24/7 basis. Warnings of all
three types of space weather storms are issued when there is high
probability of occurrence. Warnings for radiation and magnetic storms
are aided by the ability to detect the incoming solar wind from a
satellite one million miles upstream, the Advanced Composition Explorer
(ACE). This sentinel allows for a few minutes advance notice of
radiation storms, and up to one hour lead time for magnetic storms.
However, it does not offer any benefit for radio blackouts.
Space weather events such as radio blackouts, radiation storms, and
geomagnetic have affected various technologies and systems in sometimes
spectacular ways. During the last solar cycle, a geomagnetic storm
caused the Hydro-Quebec power grid to black out on March 13, 1989,
leaving six million without electricity for nine hours. The big storms
of March 1989 and July 2000 sent engineers back to their drawing boards
hoping to design better systems to lessen the damage. A space weather
radiation storm in August 1972 could have been even more damaging,
possibly lethal. This event occurred between the lunar flights of
Apollo 16 (April 16, 1972) and Apollo 17 (December 16, 1972).
Biologists have calculated that the radiation received by astronauts,
had they been on the moon at the time of the storm, would have caused a
quick death. Good luck averted a disaster.
The frequency of occurrence of space weather storms, and the
possible consequences of the storms, are indicated in the NOAA Space
Weather Scales document attached to this testimony and available on
SEC's website at http://www.sec.noaa.gov.
SEC OVERVIEW
What we now call ``space weather'' began to affect widely used
technology during World War II, disrupting the newly developed
communication and radar systems. After the War, the Central Radio
Propagation Laboratory was set up in the National Bureau of Standards
in Boulder, Colorado, coalescing federal activities dealing with space
weather. A portion of this unit, by then named the Environmental and
Solar Data Service, was folded into the Environmental Science Services
Agency (ESSA) when it was formed in the 1960s. Daily forecasting of the
space environment for the public commenced in 1965. ESSA was rolled
into NOAA when NOAA was formed in 1970, and the SEC is the result.
NOAA's mission ``To understand and predict changes in the Earth's
environment. . .to meet our nation's economic, social, and
environmental needs'' includes space weather. Just as NOAA's
tropospheric weather service does for its customers, NOAA's space
weather service monitors and predicts conditions in the space
environment for its customers. SEC carries out its role as the Nation's
official source of space weather alerts and warnings under various
legislative mandates, statutory authorities, and Department of Commerce
Reorganization Plans that gave the authority to monitor and predict the
space environment to NOAA. Currently, SEC is both a research laboratory
in NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) and one of
the National Weather Service's (NWS) National Centers for Environmental
Prediction. SEC's products are distributed via e-mail, its Web site,
the NWS Family of Services, time and frequency standards radio stations
WWV and WWVH, and the NOAA Weather Wire; pager service to notify
customers when SEC issues an alert is available from a commercial
provider.
SEC is also a member of the International Space Environment Service
(ISES), which has 12 Regional Warning Centers around the world to take
observations and provide services of regional interest. Daily, the
regional centers share their data and tentative predictions with SEC,
which synthesizes the information and, as the World Warning Agency,
issues the global forecast of space weather conditions. ISES traces its
parentage to the International Council of Scientific Unions; its
Regional Warning Centers are funded by their host countries.
NOAA's space weather service is analogous to its tropospheric
weather service, and both antedate the formation of NOAA itself. Both
serve civilian government, public, and industrial users, and both have
links to military and academic partners. For both services, NOAA was
deemed to be the proper home. Using NOAA's and others' sensors, the SEC
continually monitors and daily forecasts Earth's space environment and
provides accurate, reliable, and useful solar-terrestrial information
to their customers. SEC acquires, interprets, synthesizes, and
disseminates monitoring information to serve the Nation's need to
reduce adverse effects of solar-terrestrial disturbances on human
activities. It prepares and disseminates forecasts and alerts of
conditions in the space environment. SEC conducts research into
phenomena affecting the Sun-Earth environment including the emission of
electromagnetic radiation and particles from the Sun, the transmission
of solar energy to Earth via solar wind, and the interactions between
the solar wind and Earth's magnetic field, ionosphere, and atmosphere.
It conducts research and development in solar-terrestrial physics and
in techniques to improve monitoring and forecasting, prepares high-
quality data for national archives, and uses its expertise to advise
and educate those affected by variations in the space environment. When
events warrant, watches, warnings, and alerts are issued for the use of
operators whose systems may be adversely affected by space weather
storms. These user groups are private, commercial, government, and
military operators, concerned with electric power distribution, high-
frequency radio communications, satellite operations, astronaut
protection, radio navigation, and national security.
The SEC, however, faces a number of challenges to meeting the needs
of the user groups mentioned above. These challenges include budgetary
challenges, particularly the potential of cuts in the President's
budget request for SEC in the FY 2004 appropriations bills; and,
scientific challenges.
The President requested $8.291 million total for the SEC in FY
2004. However, the House Appropriations Committee has recommended FY04
funding of $5.298 million for SEC, while the Senate Appropriations
Committee zeroed out funding for SEC. If the House Committee level of
$5.298 is enacted, there will be dramatic consequences for SEC and the
vital services that it provides. The House mark of $5.298 million would
support staffing of only about 25 FTEs, down from the 53 FTEs requested
in the President's budget. In the short-term, most non-labor SEC costs
are fixed.
Downsizing to the House Appropriation's Committee's recommended
level, NOAA and SEC would attempt to preserve, as much as possible, the
Nation's investment in the current space weather monitoring network by
continuing to acquire, ingest, process, disseminate, and provide to
archives the copious data with breaking the continuity of 30 years
worth of measurements. This activity currently consumes about half of
SEC's budget. Therefore, the shortfall created by an appropriation of
$5.3 million would be borne either by research and development or by
operations. NOAA and SEC will be forced to choose between the least
undesirable of two options described below. In either case, SEC's data
handling capability for ingest, processing, and archive would degrade.
Eighty percent of Air Force alerts are driven by data provided only by
SEC. The space weather data ingest and distribution network, identified
by Homeland Security as a part of the Nation's Critical Infrastructure,
would face imminent failure. For example, under each option,
irreplaceable coverage gaps in real-time Solar Wind data would result,
as satellite tracking shrinks, reducing alerts of geomagnetic storms
affecting communications and GPS accuracy.
In the first reduction option, NOAA would eliminate SEC's research
and development while continuing operational services with no
improvement. Verification of and technique development to use Solar X-
ray Imager (SXI) data would cease. When operational, the SXI takes
images of the sun once a minute, providing additional data needed to
more accurately forecast and alert users to space weather events. The
Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model currently
being developed would not become available to civilian users. This
model will provide global specification and forecasts of the ionosphere
in 3-dimensions, where presently only in-situ measurements and
climatological models are available. NOAA participation in the National
Space Weather Program will cease. SEC will not be able to provide
improvements to products and models supporting airlines, power
companies, navigation, and other critical services. NOAA will be unable
to transition into operations the physics based models developed at
national centers and universities by NSF, NASA, and DOD-supported
scientists. In addition, SEC's website, the primary customer interface
for the distribution of space weather data and information will not be
improved and recovery from failure will be difficult.
In the second option, NOAA would eliminate SEC's operational space
weather services while continuing research and development against the
day that (improved) services can resume. NOAA would cease to issue
official U.S. space weather alerts, warnings, and forecasts,
information that is currently not provided by any other source.
Unfortunately, reducing the current suite of products one-by-one saves
very little until the last product is terminated. The infrastructure to
support one product supports all, so there is little savings in
reducing the number of products. Joint operations with the U.S. Air
Force would stop, including providing back-up to the U.S. Air Force's
classified space weather support to our armed services. Products
supporting airlines, power companies, navigation, and other services
and industries would not be prepared, issued, and updated. As noted for
research and development, the SEC website would degrade and be prone to
complete failure. Real-time operational data systems would be
decommissioned.
SEC has several scientific challenges before it. An exciting effort
is its work with academic and DOD partners to assimilate data into
numerical models, similar to the significant assimilation challenge
faced by the meteorological modeling community. The challenge combines
computational science and physical understanding of the space
environment and will lead to improvements in both. With successful ``4-
D data assimilation,'' the model outputs (space weather maps) will be
more accurate and more skillful, therefore more useful to users of the
services. SEC is working to ensure that space environment monitors
designed for GOES and POES satellites provide useful and reliable data
on every satellite. Researchers at SEC consult on and write
requirements for space weather sensors and, when appropriate, on
requirements for the satellites.
SEC has three Divisions; one for services; a second for research
and development; and, a third to develop and maintain the computer
systems which support the Center's work. The Research and Development
Division derives its goals and targets from the needs of the Space
Weather Operations Division. In turn, the space weather services
products improve from the application of R&D. Having R&D and
operational services in one Center encourages more frequent and more
effective interaction and collaboration among the scientists,
forecasters, and specialists at SEC. While forecasts, alerts, and
warnings are routine for quiet and mildly unsettled solar conditions,
when activity becomes intense, forecasters consult with the Center's
research Ph.D.s about the forecast. This is because there are not yet
good ``rules of thumb'' for how to deal with these situations, and the
best expertise must be brought to bear on aspects of the problem. In
addition, the pace of innovation and change is still very rapid in
space weather, with researchers at SEC and elsewhere playing a major
role in developing models that, if they could be transitioned swiftly
into operations, would bring us progressively closer to the goal of
physics-based, numerical space weather predictions.
The Research and Development Division is grounded in understanding
the fundamental physical processes governing the regime from the solar
surface, through the interplanetary medium, into the magnetospheric-
ionospheric regions, and ending in Earth's upper atmosphere. These
processes determine the climatology and nature of disturbances in the
solar atmosphere, in Earth's magnetic field, in the ionosphere, in the
charged particle populations at satellite orbits, and in the
atmospheric density at high altitudes (including low-Earth orbit).
SEC's research, technique development and new sensor implementation are
focused on areas where advanced applications can be brought to bear to
improve space weather services. The staff has expertise spanning from
solar physics to Earth's upper atmosphere and maintains close
collaborations throughout the larger research community. They publish
regularly in scientific journals, and work directly with the SEC Space
Weather Operations and the Systems Division to develop state-of-the-art
capabilities for the SEC forecast center. The group develops analysis
tools for working with data from a variety of spacecraft, including the
NOAA geosynchronous and polar orbiters, and spacecraft in the solar
wind. Data access is provided through customized data-analysis routines
and individualized displays. In addition to enhancing the utility and
value of the primary data through research and analysis, the group
explores sources of new data and improved monitoring to support Space
Weather Operations. The group leads in the development of techniques to
process and interpret both ground-based and space-based solar imagery,
and has special expertise in solar X-ray imaging.
The Space Weather Operations Division is the Nation's official
source of space weather alerts and warnings. The services center is
staffed 24/7 with an operations specialist and, for ten hours a day, a
forecaster They continually monitor Earth's space environment with
displays and software driven by the approximately 1400 data streams
received each day. Forecasters synthesize current data, climatological
statistics, and relevant research results to formulate their daily
predictions of solar and geophysical activity. Operations specialists
ensure data integrity and timeliness; verify event validity and issue
Alerts, Watches, and Warnings; and update announcements on the
Geophysical Alert Broadcasts over radio station WWV and WWVH.
The Systems Division is responsible for: IT system architecture;
computer security; developing or acquiring, and maintaining, the
computer hardware and software to routinely ingest data; populating the
data bases; the hardware and software for disseminating data and
products to customers and to the archive; and providing computer
configuration control and redundancy for operational reliability. In
addition, Systems Division personnel provide system administration and
support to internal users, while responding to IT directives from the
NOAA and OAR Chief Information Officers, and working with
administrators of the several local Internet services. The Division
operates the receiving antennas at the prime and back-up Boulder sites,
and has personnel on-call at all times to attend to hardware and
software failures which affect the functions of the forecast center.
SEC performs a vital role for the Nation in conducting and
coordinating research and its application. The recent National Research
Council report--A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics
(2003), recommended that NOAA should assume full responsibility for
space-based solar wind measurements, expand its facilities for
integrating data into space weather models, and, with NASA, should plan
to transition research instrumentation into operations. As discussed in
the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan (2000),
interagency programs cannot succeed in meeting the Nation's needs
without NOAA SEC observations, research, model development, and
transition to operations. And, as emphasized in the Department of
Defense's (DOD) National Security Space Architect Study (2000), NOAA's
current and planned activities are essential to meet DOD's space
weather needs.
In addition to the SEC's activities, it should be noted that three
line organizations play roles in the NOAA Space Weather Program:
National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service
(NESDIS), National Weather Service (NWS), and Office of Oceanic and
Atmospheric Research (OAR), with some interest and support from the
National Ocean Service. They cover the gamut of space weather
activities from setting requirements for future space environment
monitoring sensors and spacecraft, to monitoring the development of the
sensors for flight on the Geostationary Operational Environmental
Satellites (GOES) or Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES),
to tracking and downloading data from NOAA and non-NOAA satellites, to
processing and distributing the data, and finally to archiving the
data. Many of these activities are contained within and are an integral
part of NOAA's major programs, such as the GOES and POES programs, so
that only the Space Environment Center (OAR) and part of the National
Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) in NESDIS are clearly identified budget
structures tied directly to NOAA's space weather program. The
requirements process also identifies observations needed in addition to
the GOES and POES programs and programmatic plans are made for these
platforms as well. NGDC is the sole archive of routine monitoring data
of the space environment recorded on GOES, on POES, and on DOD's
Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellites. It is also the
sole archive of space environment monitoring data recorded at DOD
ground-based solar and ionospheric stations. As noted below, NOAA also
works closely with other federal agencies and nations to obtain
available real-time space weather data enabling more accurate and
timely space weather services for the Nation.
COLLABORATION WITH PARTNERS
SEC works with a variety of partners to accomplish its mission.
Internally, cooperative ventures abound as graduate students, post-
doctoral students, visiting scientists, Cooperative Institute fellows
from the University of Colorado, and contractors all contribute to the
effort at the Center. Additionally, SEC works with the Cooperative
Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, a NOAA Joint
Institute.
SEC works closely with colleagues across government agencies and
academia, in the U.S. and internationally, to understand the space
environment and apply research results. Collaboration requires a great
deal of coordination within the U.S. and internationally. Within the
U.S. Government, the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
provides a mechanism for space weather coordination, including
development and implementation of the National Space Weather Program
(NWSP). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the
National Science Foundation (NSF), and the Departments of Defense
(DOD), Interior (DOI), Energy (DOE), Commerce (DOC), and Transportation
(DOT) are participants in the NWSP, which recognizes common interests
in space weather observing and forecasting. Aware of the need for
prudent employment of available resources and the avoidance of
duplication in providing these services and support for agency mission
responsibilities, the cooperating departments have sought to satisfy
the need for a common service and research program under the NWSP. The
NWSP's Implementation Plan sets out the expected data, research, and
services contribution from each participating agency.
To provide its specification and forecast services, SEC works most
closely with the U.S. Air Force Weather Agency's forecast center in
Omaha, which provides services to U.S. military customers. NOAA
civilians and uniformed NOAA Corps and U.S. Air Force personnel
together staff the joint services center in Boulder. NOAA and USAF
share their data without charge to each other, and confer every day
before the daily forecasts are issued by the two agencies to their
respective clients. The SEC provides centralized space weather support
to non-DOD government users, such as NASA, and to the general public,
such as the commercial airline industry. SEC operates and maintains a
national real-time space weather database to accept and integrate
observational data, to provide operational support and services in the
space and geophysical environment, to provide services to public users
in support of the national economy, and to serve as the U.S. Government
focal point for international data exchange programs. The USAF provides
unique and classified support to all DOD users. The Space Weather
Operations Center (SPACEWOC) at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)
serves as the DOD focal point for space weather forecasting support and
services. The USAF maintains a worldwide network of both ground-based
and space-based observing networks to provide accurate, reliable, and
timely support to military communications, surveillance, and warning
systems. To avoid duplication, the two agencies share responsibilities
to produce certain space weather databases, warning, and forecast
products of mutual interest and benefit to each other. AFWA and SEC
provide cooperative support and backup for each other in accordance
with existing agreements.
NOAA procures, operates, and maintains the Space Environment
Laboratory Data Acquisition System (SELDADS) as the national system for
collection, integration, and distribution of solar-geophysical data
received in real-time from ground-based observatories and satellite
sensors. Collection, processing, monitoring, and storage of the data
occurs continuously around the clock. Displays and interactive analyses
of the data are used by SEC to provide alerts, forecasts, and data
summaries to a user community consisting of industrial and research
organizations and Government agencies in the United States and abroad.
The collaboration among space weather service providers and those
who fund their research is closely coordinated and mutually beneficial.
NASA and DOD conduct critical research and development activities that
NOAA assesses and incorporates, as needed, onto its civil operations
spacecraft. NASA's upcoming Living with a Star set of missions and
their accompanying data and research are oriented toward improving
space weather monitoring and improving techniques for understanding
space weather effects and the inference of the physical processes that
shape the space weather environment. These are important because they
enable the production of new physical models for improved
predictability of the space weather environment and its evolution. The
space industry also provides expertise to assist in various projects.
Increasingly, collaborations with the private sector and foreign remote
sensing operators provide data and information that NOAA and other
government agencies such as the USDA, DOE, and DOI use to implement
their respective missions.
SEC also works actively with partners in industry and other users
on specific projects to identify research and forecast needs. For
example, SEC has one active Cooperative Research and Development
Agreement with Federal Data Corporation (FDC) to develop a model of the
wavelength-dependent changing solar brightness for customers interested
in ionospheric changes and heating of the terrestrial atmosphere.
NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and SEC scientists, with
others, issue and update the world consensus forecasts of the 11-year
cycle of solar activity for the benefit of NOAA, NASA, DOD, and others;
this is the forecast used by NOAA, NASA, DOD, and the international
community for mission planning. Spaceweather.com, a website fostered
and supported by MSFC, makes heavy use of SEC's data and products. The
website exhibits data gathered from SEC. SEC is first in the site's
list of ``essential'' links.
SEC also co-sponsors Space Weather Week annually with other
government agencies such as the Air Force Research Laboratory, NSF
Division of Atmospheric Science, and NASA Sun-Earth Connection Program.
This event brings hundreds of users, researchers, vendors, government
agencies, and industry representatives together in a lively dialog
about space weather. Discussion focuses on recent solar and geomagnetic
activity, specific space weather impacts, and our scientific
understanding of this activity. The conference program highlights space
weather impacts in several areas of the environment including
ionospheric disturbances, satellite drag, auroral currents, geomagnetic
storms and their solar drivers, radiation belts, and solar energetic
particles. The conference registration fee covers almost the entire
cost of the conference. The rest of the conference expenses are covered
by NSF, specifically some costs for invited speakers, students, special
guests and support for international partners to attend. SEC, the DOD
Air Force Research Lab and NASA all assist with the planning of Space
Weather Week, and representatives from industries impacted by space
weather including those from electric power, commercial airlines,
satellite operations, and navigation/communications are among frequent
participants and contributors. The attached spreadsheet highlights
comments SEC has received from users about impacts of space weather on
their efforts.
VALUE OF SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING AND RESEARCH
In the last few years, there has been a large increase in society's
need for space weather information, as geomagnetic storms and solar
disturbances can impact a wide array of sectors and industries ranging
from transportation to electricity generation. SEC's website receives
on average more than 500,000 hits per day from commercial and public
users. This number can triple during severe space weather events. SEC
forecasts and research helps support a wide array of needs including
the U.S. power grid infrastructure, commercial airline industry, Global
Positioning System or GPS, NASA human space flight activities,
satellite launch and operations, and U.S. Air Force operational
activities.
The direct global economic impact of space weather has been
estimated at about $200 million per year. A one percent gain in
continuity and availability of GPS information, which can be disrupted
by space weather events, would be worth $180 million per year. DOD
alone spends $500 million each year to mitigate space weather effects.
In 1989, a space weather storm caused such significant orbital decays
that the Air Force Space Command lost track of 1,300 of the 8,000
objects orbiting in space that it was tracking. In addition to the
potential harm radiation from a space weather event can cause
astronauts and sensitive electrical equipment in space, these rapid
changes in flight paths of space debris could be potentially harmful
should they intersect with the paths of astronauts or satellites in
space. In March 1989, seven geostationary satellites had to make 177
orbital adjustments in two days, more than normally made in a year.
Such wear reduces the satellites' useful lifespan. Destruction of
AT&T's Telestar satellite by a severe weather event in 1997 disrupted
TV networks and part of the U.S. earthquake monitoring network, and
forced renegotiation of the sale of Telestar, resulting in a drop of
$234 million in value. Submarine, continental cables, and parts of
fiber optic cable systems have all been known to fail or be overloaded
as a result of space weather.
Geomagnetically-induced currents can disrupt or wipe out electrical
systems through power surges that cause network supply disruptions,
transformer damage, and wear-and-tear on other components. As we
apparently witnessed this summer during the blackout in the north, a
single failure in the power grid can escalate into cascading damages
and outages. Oak Ridge National Laboratory estimates that a blackout in
the Northeast caused by geomagnetic storms could result in a $3-6
billion loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A geomagnetic storm in
1989 caused $13.2 million in damage to power systems operators in
Quebec, and another $27 million to power operators in New Jersey. In
addition, the disruption creates additional impacts for power customers
who lose electricity. After 1989, Hydro-Quebec spent $1.2 billion on
capacitors to prevent potential space weather disruptions. A current,
induced by severe space weather, in a liquefied gas pipeline that
ignited when two trains passed over it is the suspected cause of an
accident that killed over 500. Preventative measures, based on early
forecasts from the SEC and its partners, can help mitigate the need for
such costly alternatives as shielding power lines. One recent estimate
suggested that the use of good forecasts by the power industry could
save the U.S. $365 million per year, averaged over the solar cycle.
Not only do we depend more heavily on systems that can be adversely
impacted by space weather, new systems and new modes of operation using
old systems vulnerable to space weather have proliferated. Satellites
are becoming smaller and cheaper because of reduced component size and
increased computer speeds. Economic competition drives the need to
reduce shielding and redundancy, but these changes leave satellites
more vulnerable to space weather disturbances. U.S. airlines are
offering passengers the convenience of non-stop flights over the North
Pole to Asian destinations; these flights (and research flights in
Antarctica) sometimes experience air traffic control difficulties due
to space weather. During a March 2001 space weather storm, 25 flights
were rerouted to avoid the Poles because of the increased radiation
risk.
National policy and defense planning have resulted in increased
reliance on the use of commercial systems to gather information and
move it between the United States and troops and ships in hot spots
around the world. However, experiences during severe conditions of the
last solar cycle indicates that some users may experience performance
failures and degraded results during times of high solar and
ionospheric activity. The nation is also placing large numbers of
astronauts into radiation-vulnerable orbits for unprecedented periods
of time during the assembly and operation of the International Space
Station. Our increased need for improved space weather information to
insure safety, reliability, and defense are inevitable outcomes of our
growing use of space-weather-sensitive systems.
SEC has been keeping up with the changes, responding to new
customer needs, research breakthroughs, and the changing face of space
weather services. Among several successes, it has transitioned physics-
based numerical models into the operational space weather service. It
was possible to use the first of these university-developed models only
when real-time solar wind data from upstream of Earth became available
to drive them. Now forecasters get numerical guidance, much as
meteorological forecasters do. Model output can be disseminated to
provide customers with the space weather analogs of meteorological
weather maps, showing event locations and intensities of computed
fronts and boundaries. SEC has designed website to make it user-
friendly for a range of audiences, from electricity producers to
teachers and the media.
A solar x-ray imager on GOES-12 was made operational in 2003,
funded as a USAF-NASA-NOAA partnership, and has provided images of the
solar corona at a rate of once per minute. Images are able to show
visible coronal changes that signal events on the Sun which will later
cause space weather storms. This imager is the first of its kind, and
it shows more capability in imaging the Sun for forecasting purposes
than any solar imager to date. Automating the extraction of information
from these images and incorporating the information into specification
and forecast algorithms is already shedding light into the causes of
solar wind and eruption events hazarding Earth. However, on the morning
of September 2, 2003, the GOES-12 SXI instrument automatically
transferred into an instrument safe (non-operational) mode. Two
attempts were made to raise instrument voltages to their normal
operating levels, but both attempts failed. Development of plans to
return the SXI to limited operations is underway.
SEC is also active in developing products and services for the next
generation air transport system. Working with both the commercial
airlines and the FAA, SEC is formulating new products to serve airline
operations of the future. That future is certain to include higher
flying and trans-polar air routes as each allows for a faster more
profitable trip. Particular issues that are impacted by space weather
are navigation, radio communication, and radiation to the passengers
and crew. Recent work with the FAA's User Needs Analysis Team (UNAT)
has led to the implementation of SEC alerts and warnings into the
operational planning for commercial airlines on trans-polar routes.
Specifically, communications from air to ground, and the management of
the radiation environment are points of concerns for the FAA. SEC has
worked to supply the appropriate real-time information to be used by
aircraft dispatchers.
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee, NOAA
is pleased to have had the opportunity to provide you an overview of
space weather and SEC, our collaborative activities with our partners,
and the value of space weather forecasting and research. We look
forward to continuing our efforts to provide a critical service for our
nation by providing cutting-edge research and forecasts in the space
weather arena. I would be happy to answer any questions you may have.
Chairman Ehlers. Colonel Benson.
STATEMENT OF COLONEL CHARLES L. BENSON, COMMANDER, AIR FORCE
WEATHER AGENCY
Colonel Benson. Good morning. I am honored to appear before
you today to address this committee on a matter critical to our
nation: space weather. I am also pleased to be joined by this
distinguished panel of witnesses, including my partner to my
right in operational space weather services, Dr. Hildner,
Director of the Space Environment Center, otherwise known as
SEC, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The Air Force Weather Agency, known as AFWA, and SEC
operate complementary space weather forecast centers. Over the
last several decades in which the Air Force and NOAA have
analyzed and forecast space weather for operational users, we
have learned a valuable lesson: space weather is complex and
costly. Our solution has been to leverage each other's
resources, capabilities, and expertise, achieving efficiency by
concentrating on those things we each do best. In simplest
terms, AFWA is responsible for military and national
intelligence support. SEC supports civilian and commercial
users.
At AFWA, our focus has been on providing military war
fighters and DOD decision-makers with mission-tailored space
weather impact products. AFWA is the sole operational space
weather support organization in the Department of Defense. To
maintain our close working relationship, AFWA has staffed a
small contingent of Air Force weather personnel at SEC in
Boulder, Colorado since 1972. This operating location acts as a
liaison to coordinate data sharing, forecast collaboration, and
to develop new forecast techniques. Daily coordination is also
accomplished through multiple teleconferences, which assures
agreement on joint space weather forecast products.
Another great advantage of our close working relationship
with SEC is cost sharing opportunities. For example, the Air
Force funded $18 million to develop the Solar X-ray Imager
Sensor, now operational on a NOAA satellite. This new sensor
now provides critical data to both forecast centers.
Lastly, AFWA relies on real-time data relay and processing,
partial backup, and expertise and experience from SEC to
provide DOD operators with high quality space weather analysis,
forecasts, and warnings.
AFWA aggressively reviewed the space weather operations
performed at SEC to determine if AFWA could assume their
support responsibilities if the proposed funding cuts are
realized. Our initial evaluation shows that there would be many
significant challenges transitioning the data ingest, space
weather models, applications, and computer and communication
infrastructures. Meeting these challenges would be both time-
consuming and very costly. In particular, the space weather
research and technology transition expertise at SEC would take
years to rebuild at AFWA. Furthermore, there are security,
policy, and resource issues of great concern, approval to
operate and connect to military networks, Armed Forces Title 10
responsibilities providing services to commercial interests,
and both manpower and operating fund limitations.
Our Nation is becoming increasingly dependent on space
technology. Although the science of space weather is still in
its infancy, it has been compared to the meteorological
capability of this country in the 1950's, we are on the verge
of improved capabilities from new models and data sources,
which will provide more accurate space weather services. SEC is
at the forefront of this movement. The Nation's investment in
space weather capabilities will yield great future dividends,
just as the investment in terrestrial weather 50 years ago is
paying off today in the Nation's ability to anticipate extreme
weather and then mitigate its effects.
The synergy of the two complementary space weather forecast
centers at SEC and AFWA have proven to be a national asset to
the security and prosperity of the United States. We urge this
committee to advocate for a healthy and stable SEC so this
critical capability for military and civilian users will
continue into the future.
I look forward to addressing all of your questions later.
[The prepared statement of Colonel Benson follows:]
Prepared Statement of Colonel Charles L. Benson, Jr.
Introduction
I am honored to appear before you today to address this committee
on a matter critical to our nation: space weather. I am also pleased to
be joined today by one of my partners in operational space weather
services, Dr. Ernest Hildner, Director of the Space Environment Center
(SEC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Overview of Air Force Space Weather Services
The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) has the sole responsibility to
provide military space weather services to all Department of Defense
(DOD) agencies and units, as well as to the National Intelligence
Community. Our mission is two-fold: to collect space weather data from
DOD ground- and space-based sensors; and to provide environmental
battlespace awareness through mission-tailored analyses, forecasts, and
warnings of mission-impacting space weather to operators, warfighters,
planners and decision-makers from command level down to individual
units. To accomplish our mission, AFWA operates the Space Weather
Operations Center, or Space WOC, the Nation's only military space
weather analysis and forecast center, located at Offutt Air Force Base,
Nebraska. We also operate a global network of optical and radio solar
observatories, and maintain an intercontinental network of space
weather sensors feeding data to the Space WOC. AFWA employs sixty-four
(64) military and contractor personnel at the Space WOC and other
locations, including thirty (30) personnel stationed at the solar
observatories around the world. In addition to the personnel costs,
AFWA committed $10.9 million dollars in Fiscal Year 2003 to operate,
upgrade and improve the Space WOC and solar observatories, and to
collect data from DOD ground- and space-based sensor networks. AFWA is
dedicated to providing warfighters a complete situational awareness of
the battlespace in which they operate. This enables the warfighters to
maximize their effectiveness while minimizing the risk to life,
resources and mission impacts introduced by the natural space
environment.
Users of Air Force Space Weather Products and Information
Users of AFWA's space weather services include every branch of
service--Army, Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard--and the
National Intelligence Community, from leadership and senior decision
makers to specific individual units. Success in every modern military
operation depends upon at least one of the following space weather-
impacted capabilities: long-distance radio or satellite communications
for command and control, precision navigation and timing from Global
Positioning System (GPS) signals, over-the-horizon or tactical radars,
high-altitude manned aerial reconnaissance, orbiting spacecraft and
sensors, and strategic space launch. AFWA provides analyses and
forecasts of space weather impacts on these capabilities to DOD and
National Intelligence Community leadership and operators. The National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment
Center (SEC) is a major user of Air Force space weather data. AFWA
provides this data in accordance with collaborative partnering
agreements to facilitate its space weather support to the commercial
and civilian communities.
Relationship Between AFWA, SEC, and NASA
AFWA and SEC are partners in providing space weather service to the
Nation. Each has clearly defined roles and responsibilities, leveraging
the capabilities of the other to realize significant cost and resource
savings. In simplest terms, AFWA is responsible for military and
national intelligence support--SEC supports civilian and commercial
users. The Air Force divides space weather services into five basic
steps: (1) observe, measure, and collect space weather data, (2)
analyze the data, (3) specify and forecast the space environment, (4)
tailor analyses and forecasts to meet individual user needs, and (5)
integrate space weather information to users' decision and execution
processes. AFWA's primary focus on information tailoring and
integration are the two steps providing the greatest benefit and value
to the warfighter. SEC emphasizes characterization and forecasting the
natural space environment.
AFWA relies on SEC in three crucial areas to accomplish our space
weather mission: 1) unique data, analyses and forecasts provided by
SEC; 2) partial backup capability; and 3) SEC's unique space weather
experience and expertise. The Space WOC relies on ground- and space-
based magnetometer data provided through SEC to analyze, warn and
forecast global geomagnetic activity important to the national
intelligence agencies and to the North American Aerospace Defense
Command (NORAD). AFWA also depends on alerts of geomagnetic activity
from NOAA satellites and solar activity forecasts provided by SEC to
warn and forecast impacts to specific military communications links. As
identified in the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan,
the AFWA and SEC forecast centers provide limited back-up operations
for each other in the event of computer equipment or communication
outages. Current back-up consists of telephone notification of observed
space weather events. Space WOC and SEC coordinate on forecasts and
engage in multiple daily space weather teleconferences. These
teleconferences inject valuable insight into the science and art of
space weather forecasting and allow AFWA to leverage the vast knowledge
and experience of SEC scientists.
AFWA reciprocates in our partnership with SEC by sharing unique DOD
space weather data and Air Force forecasts of geomagnetic activity. SEC
utilizes solar images and radiographs from the solar observatories,
particle data from sensors aboard military satellites, and ground-based
DOD instruments in their operations. In addition, every six hours the
Space WOC produces a forecast of geomagnetic activity from SEC supplied
data. SEC in-turn uses these forecasts in the production of their
products and services.
To facilitate and promote our close working relationship, AFWA
established Operating Location-P (OL-P) co-located with SEC at Boulder,
Colorado. OL-P personnel act as liaisons between SEC and AFWA,
coordinate back-up policy and procedures between the two organizations,
augment SEC forecaster manning, interact with researchers, ensure
smooth and continuous data flow between both forecast centers, assist
SEC researchers in establishing new data sources and ground data
systems, and take part in developing new space weather forecast
techniques benefiting both organizations. The complementary nature of
the two missions allows both NOAA and the Air Force to realize cost
sharing advantages to acquire needed data. SEC provides the Advanced
Composition Explorer real-time tracking data to AFWA. The Air Force
paid $18 million to develop the Solar X-ray Imager now operational
aboard one of the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental
Satellites. Additionally, AFWA pays the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for ground-based
space weather data from a global network of GPS receivers.
AFWA taking on the duties of SEC
Air Force Weather Agency aggressively reviewed the space weather
operations performed at SEC to determine if AFWA could assume their
support responsibilities if proposed funding cuts are realized. Our
initial evaluation shows that there are many significant technical
challenges transitioning the data ingest, space weather models and
applications, and computer and communication infrastructures from SEC
to the Space WOC. Meeting these challenges will be both time consuming
and costly. Additionally, there are many critical issues and important
policy considerations that would have to be addressed prior to assuming
any commercial space weather services at AFWA. These include Armed
Forces Title 10 responsibilities, security and accreditation affecting
AFWA's approval to operate and connect to DOD communication networks,
as well as significant manpower and funding resource issues. In
particular, SEC's expertise and experience in satellite-based space
weather measurements from NOAA spacecraft, and its one-of-a-kind space
weather modeling applications, would be very difficult to reproduce at
AFWA. The space weather research and technology transition expertise
resident at SEC would take years to build at AFWA.
Impacts on Air Force and Military Ops
There would be an immediate and severe impact on military
operations if the Space Environment Center no longer existed. Air Force
Weather Agency's ability to characterize and forecast the space
environment would be dramatically reduced, impacting space situational
awareness, satellite and radio communications, space control, precision
navigation and strike, high-altitude flight and space operations.
Additionally, the loss of a back-up capability for the Space WOC would
have serious implication on the AFWA continuity of operations plan. The
loss of SEC expertise and decades of experience would likely decrease
AFWA's space weather characterization and forecast accuracies. The
closure of SEC would also result in a decrease in the rapid transition
of new techniques and data sources into space weather forecast
operations.
Summary
Over the last several decades in which the Air Force and NOAA have
analyzed and forecasted the space environment for operational users, we
have learned a valuable lesson: space weather is a complex and costly
undertaking. Our solution has been to leverage each other's resources;
achieving efficiency by concentrating on those things we each do best.
Our nation is becoming increasingly dependent on space technology.
Although the science of space weather is still in its infancy--which
some have compared to the meteorological capability of this country in
the 1950's--we are on the verge of improved capabilities from new
models and data sources that will provide more accurate space weather
services. SEC is at the forefront of this movement. The Nation's
investment in space weather capabilities will yield great future
dividends, just as the investment in terrestrial weather fifty years
ago is paying off today. The synergy of the two complementary space
weather forecast centers at SEC and AFWA has proven to be a national
asset to the security and prosperity of the United States. One does not
have to look very far to see that the United States is not the only
``game in town'' when it comes to the exploitation of the space
environment. We urge this committee to advocate for a healthy and
stable SEC so that this critical capability for military and civilian
users will continue into the future.
Chairman Ehlers. Thank you.
Dr. Grunsfeld.
STATEMENT OF DR. JOHN M. GRUNSFELD, CHIEF SCIENTIST, NATIONAL
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION
Dr. Grunsfeld. Thank you.
Mr. Chairman, Members of the Subcommittee, thank you very
much for the opportunity for NASA to testify before you today
regarding the importance of space weather forecasting provided
by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space
Environment Center and its impact on NASA programs.
Providing space weather data is an important operational
service and has a wide range of customers both within the
United States Government and in the private sector. My
testimony today will focus on how NASA uses these critical
data. I will speak to you both from a position as NASA's Chief
Scientist, but also as a member of the Astronaut Corps, the
group of folks who are most directly exposed to the effects of
space weather, and I should add, those few individuals who have
ventured beyond 8,000 meters in altitude on Planet Earth.
Solar wind conditions, solar flares, coronal mass
ejections, and subsequent geomagnetic activity, commonly
referred to as ``space weather,'' affect many more areas of
NASA's activities than most people realize. Space weather can
have significant adverse impacts on human health, spacecraft
operations by increasing the intensity of the near-Earth
radiation environment, the increased atmospheric drag on
satellites, disrupting their orientation, reducing their
lifetime, degrading UHF and high frequency communications, and
the operation of the Global Positioning System signals that we
use in our spacecraft. These effect the health of our
astronauts in orbit, space engineering and research equipment,
orbital altitude for spacecraft such as the Hubble Space
Telescope, and ultimately, we use this information to design
our spacecraft.
NASA's space and earth science missions routinely employ
real-time forecasts from the NOAA SEC to make decisions
regarding data collection, spacecraft operation, and even
rocket launches. We use this information in the case of
anomalies in spacecraft to determine whether it was space
weather related or an engineering cause, and this is an
important part of our activities to make sure that we maximize
the scientific output of our resources.
The Chandra X-Ray Observatory and the recently launched
Space Infrared Telescope Facility both use the SEC resources,
observations of solar wind conditions and geomagnetic activity,
as critical to their real-time input for spacecraft operations.
In fact, in the recent solar activity, we have taken advantage
of SEC observations to modify our planning for those scientific
spacecraft.
At the NASA Johnson Space Center, the Space Radiation
Analysis Group uses data provided by the SEC to determine the
radiation environment in which NASA's crewed spacecraft will
operate. NOAA has supplied space weather monitoring and
forecasting information to NASA for every human space flight
mission since Apollo 8. This information affects operational
decisions, when to launch a particular mission, and when we
would do space walking activities or extra-vehicular
activities. Because of this--the information that the SEC
provides, we can plan our missions and activities in such a way
to minimize the radiation exposure received by astronauts on
our vehicles.
Minimizing radiation exposure for Shuttle and International
Space Station crews is imperative. NASA has sought the advice
of the National Council on Radiation Protection and
Measurements concerning radiation exposure limits for our
astronauts and uses this advice in setting dosage limits. We
are also guided by a principle that we call: ``As Low as
Reasonably Achievable.'' Without the data provided by the SEC,
NASA would have to reassess its operations to protect against
exposure to radiation events occurring without warning. And I
should add that during this recent solar activity, we have
changed some of our operational procedures based on SEC data to
ensure the safety of our astronauts and the International Space
Station.
Losing the SEC forecast that supports space flight missions
would be like living along a coastal area without any hurricane
forecasting capability. You would know the hurricane hit you,
but you would have no advanced warning, no ability to take
preventive actions, and no idea how strong it would be or how
long it would last.
NASA has a long history of cooperation with SEC and its
predecessor organizations at NOAA. The partnership has enabled
SEC to expand its capabilities to support human space flight
missions. We have supported the expansion of SEC services and
functionality, specifically in data processing, so that they
continue to support our Shuttle and ISS missions.
It is not within NASA's mandate as a research and
development agency to provide the operational forecasting
services currently provided by the SEC. In addition, the
technical capacity, budget, and expertise required to perform
this activity could not transition to NASA without impacting
our ongoing space flight research and operations. The NOAA SEC
has a unique complement of people, experience, and resources
that allows it to provide a high level of service to the space
weather customers. There are no other sources, either domestic
or foreign, that can provide this type of support. The
capability to monitor and forecast this environment should well
remain with the agency that has the mission and the proven
expertise to respond to all of these customers.
Thank you.
[The prepared statement of Dr. Grunsfeld follows:]
Prepared Statement of John M. Grunsfeld
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee, thank you for the
opportunity to testify before you today regarding the importance of
space weather forecasting provided by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center (SEC) and
its impact on NASA's programs. Providing space weather data is an
important operational service, and it has a wide range of customers,
both within the United States Government and in the private sector. My
testimony today will focus on how NASA uses these critical data. I will
speak to you from my perspective both as NASA's Chief Scientist, and as
a member of the astronaut corps--the group of people most directly
exposed to the effects of space weather.
Solar wind conditions, solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs),
solar extreme ultraviolet emissions, and subsequent geomagnetic
activity, commonly referred to as ``space weather,'' affect many more
areas of NASA operations and programs than most people realize. Space
weather can have significant adverse effects on human health and
spacecraft operations by increasing the intensity of the near-Earth
radiation environment, increasing atmospheric drag, disrupting
satellite orientation, and degrading UHF and HF communications and
Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. These affect the health of our
astronauts in orbit, space engineering and research equipment
functionality, orbital attitude for spacecraft such as the Hubble Space
Telescope, and ultimately, the way we design spacecraft.
NASA's Space and Earth Science missions routinely employ real-time
forecasts from the NOAA SEC to make decisions regarding data
collection, spacecraft operations, and rocket launches. NASA engineers
and researchers use near, real-time SEC forecasts to analyze instrument
and spacecraft anomalies, and separate cause and effect in the highly
modulated environment of space. During solar-induced changes to the
near-Earth radiation environment, NASA's in-space research
instrumentation can become saturated by solar energetic particles,
which can lead to anomalies. This has happened numerous times during
the recent maximum phase of the solar cycle. One example comes from the
Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Project. The ESMO uses data
provided by the NOAA SEC to determine whether spacecraft anomalies are
the result of system malfunctions or space weather events. Being able
to determine quickly that an anomaly was caused by space weather allows
ESMO to avoid lengthy equipment shutdowns while engineers search for a
cause. NOAA SEC is the only operational source for accurate, real-time
information on the near-Earth space radiation environment. NASA uses
the lessons learned from these experiences and the database of
radiation measurements gathered by SEC to design spacecraft with more
robust systems that can withstand space weather events.
The Chandra X-Ray Observatory and the recently launched Space
Infrared Telescope Facility both use the SEC observations of solar wind